Expected 85% decline in Net Overseas Migration to Australia

85 percent de3cline in net overseas migration in australia photo of screed man

Scott Morrison said 01 May 2020 during a press conference:

There’s also been, we’ve heard today, a significant fall expected in net overseas migration, which is expected to fall by about a third this year, financial year, and by 85 per cent off its peak, or off it’s previous year, in the following year in ‘21, sorry 2021, sorry ‘21/’22.

What is Net Overseas Migration – keep reading?

Source: https://www.pm.gov.au/media/press-conference-australian-parliament-house-act-1may20

Check this video for details

What is Net Overseas Migration (NOM)?

Net Overseas Migration is based on the actual historical data. What prospective migrants seem to be panicking about is Migration Intake, which is a planned limit of Permanent Residency visa grants for a financial year. There is no direct correlation between NOM and Migration Intake as far as I am aware.

NOM is calculated by the Australian Bureau of Statistics and is based on the actual data –  number of international people coming to Australia, staying over here and leaving Australia. It was 232100 between Oct 2018 and Sep 2019.

Migration Intake is a planned level for PR visa grants for a financial year. It is set on 160000 for FY1920

Let’s get into details.

NOM is ‘based on an international travelers’ duration of stay being in or out of Australia for 12 months or more over the 16 month period (12/16 month rule), and is the difference between:

  • the number of incoming international travelers who stay in Australia for 12 months or more within 16 months, who are not currently counted within the population, and are then added to the population (NOM arrivals)
  • the number of outgoing international travelers (Australian residents and long-term visitors to Australia) who leave Australia for 12 months or more within 16 months, who are currently counted within the population, and are then subtracted from the population (NOM departures)

NOM is the net gain or loss of population through immigration to Australia and emigration from Australia. Migration flows impact on issues such as Australia’s labor supply; national income; housing availability; cultural diversity; and social cohesion. Variations in the volume and characteristics of travelers to and from Australia impact on policy decisions and future planning at all levels of government.

Source: https://www.homeaffairs.gov.au/research-and-statistics/statistics/visa-statistics/live/net-overseas-migration

Where to find information about NOM?

ABS website:


Total NOM from Oct 2018 to Sep 2019 is 232100

Is NOM part of the permanent visa program?

Not directly.

The Migration program is designed to achieve a range of economic and social outcomes. The program is set annually, with the total places available capped at a ceiling of 160,000 for 2019-20.

Source: https://immi.homeaffairs.gov.au/what-we-do/migration-program-planning-levels

Is NOM decline good for PR visa aspirants?

It may sound odd, but if you are already in Australia working towards your PR you might be actually in a better position – fewer people coming to Australia, less competition for skilled visas…

If you need to discuss your situation give us a call or book a consultation with our migration agent.